Long-range eclipse forecast

Friday, 11th August 2017; 8:38 am

We’re getting close enough to the eclipse that the weather services are starting to offer forecasts. They aren’t great.

For Hopkinsville KY the four days before the eclipse, they’re projecting about a 60% chance of rain, and anywhere from 25-85% cloud cover at various times of day. That isn’t horrible. If that pattern continues for the day of the eclipse, there’d still be a fairly good chance of seeing totality. And even if it’s overcast and raining, the total eclipse will still happen: it will get dark in the middle of the day. But it would still be disappointing.

And conditions the days before and after matter too: I’m planning to be on the road and camping in a tent. Riding in the rain is no fun.

It’s still too early to be making any decisions based on this information. These 10-days-out forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, especially trying to differentiate between “probably cloudy” and “probably not cloudy”. It’s something I’m going to have to keep an eye on.

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